I have not called everything correctly over the past couple months. I went short silver on a trade and got beat on that. I did confess I did not trade silver that much so wasn’t too sure of the trade. I was wrong, and I covered my short and took my hit. However, I have been on the right side of the trades quite a bit recently. Technology has been one area I said would be great. There are just so many catalysts for this sector. Enterprise refresh, boom of Internet in emerging markets, online gaming and movies, mobile Internet and smart phones, tablets, gadgets, well and just about anything that comes out of Apple. It started last week when I recommended being long going into Google earnings. They blew out numbers and the stock is back over $600. In my opinion, on its way to $700. I own the stock itself and have a ton of calls at $550 strike, and bought them when they were way out of the money so can you hear the cha-?! IBM followed through on Monday with blowout earnings in the sector. VM Ware did the same confirming my thesis of the cloud doing very well and suggested other names off of this positive thesis like EMC, Salesforce.com and Taleo. I expect this tech trend to continue with more semiconductors reporting in the coming days and most likely will blow out numbers. People will make sacrifices to have their gadgets, especially the Apple products. This was proven a few years ago when the market was in turmoil and credit was no where to be found, but Apple still was selling out of Iphones quicker than they could make them. The consumer was defaulting on their homes and credit cards but still buying the new Iphone! Crazy consumers, but this most likely will not change anytime soon. I did Apple would beat their estimates today, but I also said I thought the stock price would take a breather since it ran up so much lately. I was wrong there and wish I was in the stock, but can’t get all of them right. At least I did not lose money on it by shorting.
I said because of the Yum Brands and Wynn quarters, we knew China was doing well. I said Coke, CSX, and Peabody Energy would follow suit because of their China influence. This came to fruition as well. I see this continuing rest of the week with Pepsi reporting on Thursday. McDonalds and Caterpillar reporting on Friday and these I expect very big numbers out of.
Now I also have been saying sectors can be shorted. I have been recommending shorting the airlines and banks (especially European banks). The airlines still sputtered today even on a 200 point up day. Banks still lagged big time with Bank of America in red, and some of the European banks that I have been shorting still going down or lagging the averages. When the averages go up this much and you still get your shorts right, that is a good day! Even my aggressive short, OpenTable only was up fractionally and traded very badly. I am staying with it.
This up day was impressive, but I am not convinced we are back on the upswing for good. I still see volatility coming with tons of negative news out there. Outside of tech and China related sectors like materials and railroads, this was overall a short covering rally. I did trim some of my bigger holdings today like Green Mountain Coffee which is sitting right at its all time high again. Sure I think it can go higher, but would not be surprised for a pullback a bit if market goes down. I also bought some more VIX calls since they were cheap today.
Tomorrow will be another huge day for earning releases. We have one of my favorite companies Core Labs reporting along with names like American Express, Ebay, EMC, F5 Networks, Intel, Qualcomm, Altria, and more banks like PNC and US Bancorp. Tons of information coming out. See to me this is fun because I only play a couple for earnings, but I spend hours listening to their conference calls or reading the transcripts to get very important information on the overall health of the sectors and global economy. Many do not think that is fun, but I do, so call me a nerd, but because of that enjoyment it makes money!
Hopefully many of my followers and readers can get that same enjoyment out of it so you can beat the markets as well!
Vinny's Stock Watch
INDU 0.00 N/A N/A NASDAQ 4068.751 +6.23 +0.15% S&P 500 1808.37 +3.28 +0.18% F 16.56 -0.14 -0.84% AKAM 44.35 -0.60 -1.33% FFIV 85.18 +1.59 +1.90% GOOG 1078.14 +8.27 +0.77% NFLX 355.67 +1.23 +0.35% DECK 85.91 +0.88 +1.03% OPEN 81.76 +0.10 +0.12% DNDN 3.00 -0.01 -0.33% WLT 16.21 +1.04 +6.86% SCCO 25.60 +0.59 +2.36% GMCR 71.81 +0.51 +0.72% EPD 62.25 +0.12 +0.19% 1970-01-01 00:00
Tagsacquisition acquisitions Apple Bank of America banks China coal copper debt defense dividends earnings economy energy Europe financials Ford fundamentals GMCR Gold Google Greece growth hedge Italy market markets natural gas Netflix oil OpenTable retail revenue S&P 500 safety sales short shorting silver stocks Technology trading VIX volatility yield
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